Brief Timeline of Saudi Drone Attack Events

What we know so far

2 key Saudi oil installations were part of a 10 drone attack on Saturday. They were Abqaiq, that region processes 7M bpd of crude and Khurais, the second-largest oil field in Saudi Arabia with capacity to pump around 1.5 million b/d of mainly Arab Light crude.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed responsibility.

Saudi Oil Ministry confirmed that 5.7M bpd of oil capacity was affected in attack (just over half of current production numbers) and 2B cubic feet of gas used to produce 700K barrels of nat gas liquids also affected. https://www.spa.gov.sa/viewfullstory.php?lang=en&newsid=1969119#1969119

US Military claimed that the attacks came from the Northwest and ruled out Yemeni involvement instead saying the attacks had to come from Iranian installations in Iraq or from Iran. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-fire-pompeo/u-s-blames-iran-for-saudi-attacks-pretend-diplomacy-idUSKBN1VZ0ML

Iran vehemently denied this and warned the US that military assets were within range of their missiles https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/15/iran-denies-drone-attacks-on-saudi-arabia-aramco-ab-qaiq-oil-facility

Now we are waiting for an assessment update from Saudi Arabia on recovery, inventories, spare capacity etc. (a million articles on varying time frames are floating around…no official word from the Ministry however)

Trump tweets on 15 Sept. Sunday night

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi that the United States has information confirming Baghdad’s denial that Iraqi territory was used to launch an attack on Saudi oil facilities, Iraq said on Monday https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-attacks-iraq-usa-idUSKBN1W119L

Industry sources told Energy Intelligence that 40% of the lost production had already been restored by Monday, while one source said national oil company Saudi Aramco expects most of the rest — more than 3 million b/d — to be brought back on line by the end of September http://www.energyintel.com/pages/eig_article.aspx?DocID=1048097&utm_campaign=top-story&utm_medium=site&utm_source=1&utm_content=Saudis+Scramble+to+Restore+Lost+Output-1048097&ts=1 

UPDATE: Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz received a phone call on Monday from US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper.

For his part, the Crown Prince stressed that the Iranian threats are not only directed against the Kingdom but also affects the Middle East and the world. https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2019/09/16/Saudi-Crown-Prince-Iranian-threats-directed-at-the-world-not-just-Kingdom.html

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